Uganda goes to the polls on 15 January 2026. Ugandans will elect the president, members of parliament for a five‑year term. As the date of the elections draws near, various stakeholders have argued that these polls are not a celebration of democracy, but rather a repetition of authoritarian consolidation. Despite the presence of 27 political parties and over 21 million registered voters, human rights groups have reported that the electoral environment is marred by violence, repression, and systematic human rights violations. For instance, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented widespread intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and torture of opposition supporters, underscoring that these elections mean little for ordinary citizens. What should be a moment of democratic renewal has instead become another occasion for authoritarian entrenchment, echoing the failures seen in Tanzania’s recent elections, yet another troubling example within the East African Community (EAC).
The stakeholders interviewed for this study emphasised that Uganda’s electoral history has been marked by contestation, violence, and authoritarian entrenchment. They note that since President Yoweri Museveni came to power in 1986, the first national election was only held in 1996 following the promulgation of the 1995 Constitution. Between 1986 and 1996, no elections took place after the NRA/M7 coup. Although elections have since been held regularly, it is argued they have consistently failed to deliver genuine democratic change. Instead, they have become ritualised exercises aimed at legitimising authoritarian rule. The upcoming 2026 elections, scheduled for January 15, appear to follow the same trajectory. The Electoral Commission has cleared 27 political parties to participate, with eight presidential candidates, including Museveni seeking a seventh term at the age of 81 and the young opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine. Despite 21,681,491 registered voters. Women make up the majority of the electorate at 53%, while men account for 47%. The credibility of the polls is already under question due to widespread repression, securitisation, and perceived manipulation of electoral processes.
In addition to these broader concerns about repression and manipulation, stakeholders also highlight the role of the Electoral Commission in disqualifying opposition candidates while leaving ruling party candidates unopposed. Such disqualifications are often based on minor or technical grounds that tend to be overlooked when applied to candidates from the ruling party. For example, Mathias Walukaga of the National Unity Platform (NUP) was disqualified, yet the courts upheld the candidacy of General Rwashande from the ruling party despite persistent questions surrounding the authenticity of his academic credentials. These practices further reinforce perceptions that Uganda’s electoral processes are skewed to entrench authoritarian rule rather than promote genuine democratic competition.
In addition, reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch paint a grim picture of the human rights environment. Amnesty documents a brutal campaign of repression: opposition rallies disrupted with tear gas and pepper spray, arbitrary arrests of activists, and supporters beaten and tortured. Human Rights Watch highlights the arrest of prominent activist Sarah Bireete, detained unlawfully ahead of the polls, as emblematic of the regime’s crackdown on dissent. The United Nations Human Rights Office adds that repression and impunity have become systemic, with laws amended since 2021 to restrict freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly. These violations confirm that Uganda’s elections are not free or fair, but occasions for authoritarian consolidation.
Campaign messaging reflects the polarised environment. Museveni’s National Resistance Movement emphasizes stability and continuity, portraying itself as the guarantor of peace despite decades of militarised governance. Opposition candidates, particularly Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform, focus on corruption, youth unemployment, and state violence, framing the election as a struggle for liberation from entrenched authoritarianism. The campaign environment has been securitised, opposition rallies are violently disrupted, media is restricted, and civil society is harassed. This climate makes genuine campaigning nearly impossible, reducing elections to symbolic contests rather than substantive democratic exercises.
According to civil society organisations, the key issues at stake in Uganda’s 2026 general elections include youth unemployment, economic stagnation, corruption, governance failures, human rights abuses, and the militarisation of politics. Electoral integrity and the legitimacy of institutions are also central concerns. Yet these issues are overshadowed by the regime’s determination to maintain power at all costs. The anticipated outcome is continuity of Museveni’s rule, facilitated by repression and manipulation. Analysts describe the elections as “managed continuity” with high repression risks. Opposition parties have been facing insurmountable obstacles, making regime change through the ballot box unlikely.
Voter apathy is expected to rise. Many Ugandans view elections as meaningless exercises that do not translate into improved governance or accountability. The cycle of violence and repression discourages participation, undermining the legitimacy of the process. The credibility of Uganda’s 2026 elections is severely compromised. Factors impacting credibility include state violence against opposition supporters, restrictions on media and civil society, manipulation of electoral laws and institutions, and intimidation and harassment of activists. International observers and human rights organisations have already questioned whether these elections can be considered free or fair.
While Uganda’s elections have long been flawed, 2026 is worse than previous cycles. The authoritarian tactics are not only repeated but escalated. Museveni’s regime has become more brazen in its disregard for democratic norms, openly repressing opposition and civil society. Compared to Tanzania’s recent failed elections, Uganda’s polls similarly represent pseudo-democracy, ritualised contests that consolidate authoritarian power rather than empower citizens.
Uganda’s 2026 elections epitomise the militarisation of politics in authoritarian African states. They are not mechanisms of democratic choice but instruments of regime survival. The cycle of contestation, violence, and repression ensures that elections generate tension and instability rather than peace and accountability. The world must recognize that Uganda’s elections are occasions of authoritarian consolidation, not democratic renewal. For citizens, they mean little beyond heightened insecurity and repression. Unless structural reforms are undertaken to restore judicial independence, protect civil liberties, and ensure genuine competition, Uganda will remain trapped in the cycle of contested elections, a pseudo-democracy.
About the author:
Tendai Mbanje is a distinguished governance and elections scholar, widely recognised for his expertise in African electoral processes. His research and professional contributions focus on the role of the African Union and African Regional Economic Communities in fostering credible, transparent, and legitimate elections across the continent. Through his work, he critically examines the institutional frameworks and normative standards that underpin democratic governance in Africa. Mbanje writes in his personal capacity, offering independent insights informed by both academic rigor and practical experience.