As Cameroon approaches its presidential election on October 12, 2025, it is reported that the political atmosphere is marked by uncertainty, frustration, and a sense of democratic fatigue. The incumbent President Paul Biya, now 92 years old and the world’s oldest serving head of state, has officially announced his candidacy for an eighth term. The announcement was posted via verified social media channels. Biya, having ruled Cameroon since 1982, his re-election bid, though widely anticipated and predictable, has reignited contentious debates over legitimacy, succession, and the future of democracy in Cameroon. Biya’s announcement comes amid mounting concerns about his fitness to govern, especially considering his age and regular absence from the public eye, which has fuelled speculation about his health and capacity.
Analysts are of the view that Biya’s ability to remain in power for over four decades is rooted in a sophisticated system of personal and authoritarian rule. Initially, Biya portrayed himself as a stabilizing force in Cameroon; however, his longevity has come to symbolize the erosion of democratic norms and human rights principles. Through elite co-optation, strategic repression, and divide-and-rule tactics, Biya has maintained control and managed to fragment the political landscape. Biya has also utilised patronage networks, ensuring loyalty among the political elites whom he created. Furthermore, it is reported that he has exploited ethnic and regional fault lines to prevent a unified opposition, and this has been evident during elections. Although Cameroon formally transitioned to multiparty politics, genuine competition has been systematically suppressed under Biya’s administration.
Central to Biya’s enduring rule, his four decades of rule were also made possible through the manipulation of constitutional and institutional frameworks. For instance, the 2008 constitutional amendment that abolished presidential term limits effectively dismantled democratic safeguards and enabled indefinite re-election. The electoral commission (ELECAM) is said to be dominated by Biya’s loyalists. It is argued that it operates through opaque processes that undermine electoral credibility. In addition, the judiciary and legislature function largely as extensions of executive authority, offering little resistance to presidential dominance. On the other hand, as reported by human rights groups, state-controlled media and harsh restrictions on press freedom silence dissenting voices, and the security apparatus is routinely deployed to intimidate opposition and quash protests. Human rights violations, including internet blackouts, arbitrary arrests, and violent crackdowns on unarmed citizens, have been the hallmarks of Biya’s governance.
Ahead of the October elections, concerns about Biya’s health and fitness to govern have intensified more than before. His prolonged absences from public life and visible decline in health have triggered succession anxiety within the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) and the country at large. With no clear heir apparent and the Senate President Marcel Niat Njifenji (who the constitution stipulates would assume temporary leadership and organize elections if President Paul Biya were to die or step down) is approaching 90 years old, the prospect of a governance vacuum looms large. Behind the scenes, power struggles are reportedly underway, exposing the fragility of a system built around personal rule rather than institutional resilience. The absence of a credible succession plan raises fears of instability, especially in a region where leadership vacuums often spiral into crisis.
International observers and domestic critics increasingly view Cameroon as an ‘electoral autocracy’, where democratic aspirations are stifled by entrenched authoritarianism. The opposition remains fragmented, with figures such as Maurice Kamto, Joshua Osih, Akere Muna, and Cabral Libii declaring their candidacies and calling for electoral reforms. Yet legal constraints, postponed legislative elections, and systematic repression continue to undermine their efforts. Civil society actors and journalists face persistent intimidation, while youth who form the demographic majority are increasingly disenfranchised and alienated from political processes.
Amid intensifying succession anxiety and internal power struggles, Paul Biya's latest cabinet and military reshuffles reflect a calculated strategy to consolidate control and reinforce regime stability ahead of the October presidential election. These moves are not isolated administrative adjustments; they are tactical instruments of authoritarian preservation. By placing trusted loyalists in key positions within both the civilian cabinet and the military hierarchy, including the elite Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR) and the presidential advisory team, Biya is fortifying the core pillars of his rule; namely, elite loyalty, coercive capacity, and executive dominance.
The reshuffles serve multiple strategic purposes. First, they pacify rival factions within the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), neutralizing potential dissent and ensuring a unified front as Biya seeks an eighth term. Second, they project an image of control and continuity amid growing public criticism and speculation about Biya’s health and political longevity. Third, they pre-emptively deter any institutional or military challenge to his authority, especially in a context where unresolved security crises such as the Anglophone conflict and Boko Haram insurgency continue to destabilize the country. Biya's approach reinforces a system built around personal/ preferential rule, patronage, and strategic repression at his convenience. The timing and scope of the reshuffles mirror previous patterns and signal a regime deeply resistant to reform.
Cameroon now stands at a critical inflection point. The 2025 elections are no longer just a contest over who governs; they are a plebiscite on whether governance itself can be reclaimed from the grip of authoritarian inertia. Biya’s legacy, defined more by stagnation than transformation, has left the country mired in economic hardship, systemic corruption, youth unemployment, and multi-front crises. Despite its resource potential, over 40% of Cameroonians live in poverty, and vast regions remain inaccessible due to conflict and displacement.
In conclusion, Biya’s bid for an eighth term is not merely a personal political decision; it is the culmination of a decades-long strategy to entrench power through constitutional manipulation, elite co-optation, and institutional decay. His calculated reshuffles and reliance on loyalist networks reflect a regime that prioritises control over renewal, and repression over reform. As Cameroon approaches the October 2025 elections, there is no doubt that the country faces a defining moment: whether to continue under a system that has hollowed out democratic norms and stifled inclusive governance, or to confront the urgent need for an institutional and political transformation in the republic. The stakes are high, not just for the presidency, but for the future of democratic resilience, social cohesion, and national stability. Without bold reforms and a credible electoral process, Cameroon risks plunging into a full-blown armed conflict, deepening its crisis of legitimacy, and forfeiting the opportunity to chart a new course toward inclusive, accountable, and participatory governance. The time for cosmetic change has passed; what is needed now is a fundamental reimagining of leadership and institutions that can restore public trust and reclaim the promise of democracy.