On 19 March 2026, the Centre for Human Rights, Faculty of Law, University of Pretoria, in partnership with the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) Continental Secretariat and the South African Department of Public Service and Administration (DPSA), hosted a high-level public lecture on the critical impact of global credit ratings on African development. Held at the University of Pretoria's Future Africa campus, the event commemorated the 23rd anniversary of the APRM under the theme: ‘The Impact of Credit Ratings on AU Member States and the Urgent Need for the Operationalisation of the African Credit Ratings Agency (AfCRA)’. The gathering brought together ministers, diplomats, and academics to deconstruct the technical complexities of global finance and advocate for a rating system that reflects the structural realities of the African continent.

Bridging the Gap Between “Exclusive Corridors” and Public Reality

Prof. Nkatha Murungi, Assistant Director of the Centre for Human Rights, opened the proceedings with a poignant contextual setting for the lecture. She highlighted that although words such as ‘debt borrowing’, interest rates and national debt’ are common in the lexicon of international relations these concepts are often relegated to “exclusive corridors” and spaces in society wherein only a select few get a front row seat in witnessing unequal access to financing. Prof. Murungi highlighted that in spite of this exclusivity, the effects of credit ratings are experienced by every citizen in the African region.

She noted that the existing discourse, which has been shaped by mostly negative and unfavourable ratings from dominant northern institutions, continues to sustain power asymmetries in global governance as these institutions are “unresponsive to African realities.” Prof. Murungi highlighted the strategic partnership in her remarks, stating: the Memorandum of Understanding between the Centre for Human Rights and the APRM was entered into to capitalise on all positive interfaces to promote an agenda which suit Africa's development, to promote “African dignity.” The creation of AfCRA is a huge milestone in reclaiming our destiny in global engagements.

A Distinctly African Idea: Credit Ratings as a Matter of Justice

In offering a message of solidarity Dr. Vasu Gounden, Executive Director of Accord, spoke of the APRM as a “distinctly African idea” one which is based on the courage to assess oneself honestly and shape a future with dignity. Dr Gounden explained that, although credit ratings may appear to be a purely financial concern of those involved in such ratings, such ratings have a profound human impact, one which affects the fiscal room government have to invest in healthcare, education, infrastructure and social protection. He characterised AfCRA as an instrument of “African agency” in a rapidly changing environment in which geopolitics is becoming more intense, multilateralism is losing its sheen. He asserted that, in such a world, Africa can no longer simply be the object of external prescriptions but must become the author of its own agenda, ensuring the continent is not merely “priced by others” but is able to define its on value based on context and fairness.

The Economic Toll of Information Asymmetry

The role that credit ratings play as a determinant access to global capital was highlighted by Ambassador Marie-Antoinette Rose Quatre, CEO of the APRM Continental Secretariat. She held that for many of the AU member states, a limited downgrade in credit rating translates into billions of dollars additional debt servicing costs that could be used for other critical development endeavours. She highlighted that there’s been a long-standing concern raised by African countries regarding methodological opacity and information asymmetry in the current global architecture dominated by a small number of institutions that do not always take into account the complexity of the economies in Africa. She clarified that AfCRA is envisaged as an independent and context sensitive institution that is intended to enrich the global ecosystem rather than replacing existing agencies. The main objectives of AfCRA are to improve the quality of information that is made available to investors, promotes transparency, and improve the fair pricing of African risks for enhanced debt sustainability.

Governance as the “Ultimate Currency”

Representing the South African government, the Minister of Public Service and Administration (DPSA) delivered a powerful keynote that balanced the call for agency with a demand for internal accountability. Minister Inkosi Mzamo E. Buthelezi warned that while Africa must interrogate the global system, it must also interrogate its own performance, noting a tendency to be “more obsessed with protocol than performance".

“The precision we apply when we execute ceremonies... should be the same obsession and attention to detail we apply to governance,” the Minister asserted. Explicitly stating that “governance is the ultimate currency,” the Minister argued that markets do not respond to titles, speeches, or protocols, but to fundamentals, credibility, and trust. The DPSA emphasised that AfCRA must not be a “comfort institution” or a “shield from accountability,” but a professional body that demands discipline. The Minister famously observed that when a country fails to align governance with credibility, the continent pays for it “with an interest, literally”.

Regional Challenges and Inaccuracies

Honourable Amos Lugoloobi, Minister of State for Finance in Uganda and Chairperson of the APRM Committee of Focal Points, spoke about his country’s frustrations with global agencies. He explained about Uganda’s “debt service first” approach, where funding for debt servicing is set aside first before any other budget allocation. His country has good macroeconomic fundamentals and a rising exchange rate but still receives a bad rating. Hon. Lugoloobi cited a report by S&P Global in 2025, which included a map of Africa with “notable inaccuracies,” including Uganda’s name being incorrectly labelled and Sudan and South Sudan being incorrectly merged. This, he said, “makes one think about the lack of contextual understanding when discussing our continent.” He asserted that the operationalisation of AfCRA is critical to reducing perceived risk premiums and ensuring the African financial narrative is written by African institutions.

The Keynote Lecture: Exposing the “Perfect Cycle” of Financial Markets

The technical core of the event was a lecture by Dr. Misheck Mutize, APRM's Lead Expert on Credit Ratings, who framed sovereign credit ratings as part of a “classic game” of investments shaped by expectations rather than purely objective fundamentals. Dr. Mutize argued that rating agencies are not passive observers but active participants in financial markets, whose assessments influence investor perceptions, capital flows, and ultimately the economic trajectories of African countries. This creates a reflexive dynamic in which ratings can reinforce market sentiments, whether justified or not, thereby amplifying borrowing costs and constraining policy space for AU member states. This level of influence demands a higher standard of contextual accuracy and accountability than is currently observed.

Dr. Mutize illustrated this through what he described as a “perfect cycle” through which financial markets can penalise African states, creating self-fulfilling prophecies: when an analyst predicts fiscal pressure, investors pull out or raise interest rates, which directly squeezes a country's fiscus and reduces funds available for development. Using a stark analogy, he compared economic modelling to weather prediction. While a meteorologist's failed forecast discredits their model without affecting the weather, a rating analyst is part of the phenomenon they predict. If they announce potential “fiscal pressure,” the market reacts, creating the very pressure predicted, allowing the analyst to claim vindication.

He cited two practical examples to demonstrate this cost:

• Ghana: Once the fastest-growing economy in Africa, Ghana faced a rapid succession of downgrades following an economic shock, which derailed its expansionary stance and led to massive currency depreciation.
• Kenya: In 2023, a speculative comment by a Moody's analyst characterising a voluntary bond buyback as a potential default completely derailed the programme and cost the country over $150 million in unnecessary interest.

Building on this, Dr. Mutize highlighted concrete missteps by global rating agencies, including cartographic errors and mislabelling of countries, to illustrate a deeper systemic issue: a lack of nuanced understanding of Africa. These are not trivial mistakes; they reflect informational asymmetries and the distance between analysts and the realities of the continent, which can distort risk assessments. He concluded that because financial markets trade on opinion and perception, Africa must control its own narrative. The lecture made a strong case for establishing the African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) as a corrective mechanism, one that embeds local knowledge, improves methodological transparency, and rebalances the power dynamics in global credit rating systems.

Prof. Michel Tshiyoyo, Dr. Vasu Gounden, Dr. Joseph Upile Matola, and Ms. Rafia De Gama were the respondents in the lecture. They provided further depth to the lecture as a panel of experts. The panel discussed the knock-on effect that credit ratings have on private lending and manufacturing in Africa. They also raised questions on whether Africa is doing enough to clean up its books and streamline its financial management before seeking a credit rating. They went on to discuss the need for complete buy-in from the member states and the need for domestic resource mobilisation for fiscal sustainability before touching on the issue of how credit rating agencies constrain policy choices in Africa and whether this impacts the ability of governments to prioritise social spending against debt reduction.

Launching the Governance Narrative

The event culminated in the launch of the “Africa’s Governance Voices” newsletter. Ambassador Rose Quatre described the publication as a strategic tool to bridge the gap between technical peer-review findings and actual reform, ensuring that the African governance story is told “with authenticity and purpose”. She stressed that the future of governance belongs to the youth, who must feel inspired to participate and contribute.

Conclusion: A Call for Action and Closing Remarks

Closing the event, Dr Sabelo Gumedze, Assistant Director (Operations) at the Centre for Human Rights, delivered a decisive “call for action”. He reaffirmed that credit ratings are not merely technical metrics but are “deeply intertwined with questions of sovereignty, development, as well as justice”. Dr. Gumedze concluded that the operationalisation of AfCRA is “not just desirable, it is imperative” for an Africa seeking to build institutions that reflect its own aspirations. 

The lecture ended with a celebratory cake-cutting ceremony for the APRM’s 23rd anniversary, marking a successful milestone.

For more information please contact:

Ms Bonolo Makgale
Bonolo.Makgale@up.ac.za  

Mr Neville Mupita 
neville.mupita@up.ac.za